Rainfall data from the past five years indicates a major shift in Ladakh's monsoon pattern. In 2021, the region recorded 21.9 millimetres of rainfall, which was 42 per cent below the then-normal seasonal average of 37.7 millimetres. In 2022, the India Meteorological Department revised its long-period average for all-India rainfall by changing the reference period from 1961–2010 to 1971–2020. As part of this revision, Ladakh's normal monsoon rainfall was reduced from 37.7 millimetres to 22.3 millimetres.
The revised benchmark coincided with a sharp rise in monsoon rainfall across the region. During 2022, Ladakh received 37.6 millimetres of rainfall against the revised normal of 22.3 millimetres, registering an excess of 69 per cent. The following year, rainfall increased further, reaching 45.2 millimetres, which was 103 per cent above the normal level.
Although 2024 was the only year during this five-year period that did not fall into the category of large excess rainfall, the region still recorded 17 per cent more rainfall than normal. The most dramatic increase came in 2025, when Ladakh received 98.6 millimetres of monsoon rainfall, an extraordinary 342 per cent above the seasonal average. August 2025 also registered the Union Territory's highest monthly rainfall since records began in 1973, with 80.2 millimetres of precipitation.
The unprecedented rainfall has raised a critical scientific question: how are moisture-laden monsoon winds now crossing one of the world's highest mountain barriers? Researchers believe that part of the answer lies in the changing thermodynamics of the atmosphere driven by global warming, which allows warmer air to retain significantly greater amounts of moisture.
Dr Avijit Sahay, Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography at Doon University, explained that understanding the recent rainfall trend requires looking at total precipitation, including both rainfall and snowfall. According to him, there is currently no long-term study proving that the overall amount of precipitation in Ladakh has changed dramatically. However, he noted that precipitation patterns have become increasingly erratic, similar to the rest of India, with intense rainfall events followed by prolonged dry periods. He also observed that winter snowfall has become less frequent because of changing patterns in western disturbances.
Dr Sahay stated that the transformation during the summer season is considerably different. He explained that the Himalayas previously acted as an almost impenetrable barrier that forced monsoon rainfall to occur over the Himalayan regions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. However, rising summer temperatures caused by global warming have increased the atmosphere's moisture-holding capacity. As a result, air masses now retain moisture for longer periods, allowing them to cross the Greater Himalayas and reach the Ladakh plateau. This process has led to a noticeable increase in summer rainfall across the region.
He further concluded that recent years have witnessed a declining trend in winter snowfall alongside a growing trend in summer rainfall, indicating a significant seasonal shift in the region's precipitation pattern.
Scientists also emphasise that increased atmospheric moisture does not necessarily result in evenly distributed rainfall. Instead, it often leads to fewer but much more intense rainfall events.
Dr Sahay pointed out that residents across the plains of India are already experiencing another consequence of the same climatic process. Rainfall that was once spread more evenly throughout the monsoon season is now concentrated into a few intense episodes, resulting in flash floods, urban waterlogging, and other weather-related disasters. He explained that this occurs because warmer air retains moisture for longer before releasing it in sudden and highly erratic spells.
Professor Ankit Agarwal from the Department of Hydrology at the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee and Joint Faculty at the International Centre for Excellence in Dams said Ladakh's repeated above-average monsoon rainfall should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of a uniformly stronger monsoon. He stressed that the more significant concern is that a limited number of intense rainfall events are contributing disproportionately to the region's seasonal rainfall totals.
Professor Agarwal explained that one plausible mechanism involves the interaction between monsoon moisture and western disturbances or upper-level westerly troughs, combined with strong moisture convergence and the lifting effect created by the Himalayan terrain. According to research conducted at the HydroClimX Laboratory, these interacting weather systems can organise extreme rainfall events across northern India.
Despite five consecutive years of above-average monsoon rainfall, researchers caution against declaring the emergence of a permanent climate trend without comprehensive long-term scientific analysis. Professor Agarwal said the current interpretation is based on atmospheric mechanisms and that detailed event-by-event analysis remains essential before directly attributing Ladakh's recent rainfall pattern to western disturbances. He described five consecutive above-average monsoon seasons as a serious warning signal rather than definitive proof of a permanent climatic transformation.
Whether the recent pattern ultimately represents a long-term climate shift or an extended period of unusual weather variability, scientists agree that the consequences are immediate. Ladakh's fragile ecosystem, traditional settlements, and mountain valleys have evolved under cold and dry climatic conditions, making adaptation to increasingly erratic and intense rainfall an urgent challenge. The continuing changes underline the growing vulnerability of high-altitude Himalayan regions to the accelerating impacts of global climate change.
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